Towards a Meltdown
India’s financial sector is in the midst of a second crisis, even as the first in the form of a humungous mass of non-performing assets on the books of commercial banks remains unresolved. This time the problem is not of…
The Bogey of Currency Manipulation
In the past decade, talk of “currency manipulation” has become a frequent trope in discussions of international trade. Much of this stems from the US government’s aggressive position on the bilateral trade deficits the US has with several countries, and…
Economic War with no End in Sight
The tariff war with China unleashed more than a year back by the Trump administration threatens to turn into full-fledged economic war. The US claims that China is engaging in unfair trade practices and adopting coercive measures against US firms,…
Disruption in the World of Trade
World trade is in deceleration mode. After having recovered smartly from 2.3 and 1.6 per cent in 2015 and 2016 to 4.6 per cent in 2017, the growth in the volume of world merchandise trade slowed to 3.0 per cent…
Warning signs from External Trade
As if all the bad news from the domestic economy were not enough, foreign trade data suggest worrisome trends on the external front as well. The latest report of monthly trade data from the Ministry of Commerce and Industry indicates…
Belt and Road Diplomacy
With China having successfully convened the second Belt and Road Forum in Beijing late April, discussions on the significance, impact and sustainability of this ill-defined, even if tangible, effort at economic diplomacy have revived. That effort is the Belt and…
The Spectre of Higher Oil Prices
On May 2, the Trump administration brought to an end the waiver the US had granted eight countries, including India, of sanctions on imports of oil from Iran. Having pulled out of the 2015 multi-country agreement with Iran to limit…
Blind Conservatism
This year’s just-concluded spring meetings of the International Monetary Fund and the World Bank were marked by a mood of gloom among the world’s leading policy makers. As recently as January 2018 the IMF had claimed that “the cyclical upswing…
China’s Trade with other Asian countries
Just before the Global Financial Crisis more than a decade ago, China had emerged as the most significant trading partner for a majority of the world’s economies. Since then, it has had even more significant impacts on global exports and…
Making hay in the markets
India’s stock markets seem to be riding one more bubble. Between 19th February and 29th March, the Sensex rose by 9.3 per cent. The trend has not been restricted to a few stocks. The S&P BSE 100, which tracks 100…